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Founded
in the 12th century, the Principality of Muscovy, was
able to emerge from over 200 years of Mongol domination
(13th-15th centuries) and to gradually conquer and absorb
surrounding principalities. In the early 17th century,
a new Romanov Dynasty continued this policy of expansion
across Siberia to the Pacific. Under PETER I (ruled 1682-1725),
hegemony was extended to the Baltic Sea and the country
was renamed the Russian Empire. During the 19th century,
more territorial acquisitions were made in Europe and
Asia. Defeat in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05 contributed
to the Revolution of 1905, which resulted in the formation
of a parliament and other reforms. Repeated devastating
defeats of the Russian army in World War I led to widespread
rioting in the major cities of the Russian Empire and
to the overthrow in 1917 of the imperial household. The
Communists under Vladimir LENIN seized power soon after
and formed the USSR. The brutal rule of Iosif STALIN (1928-53)
strengthened Communist rule and Russian dominance of the
Soviet Union at a cost of tens of millions of lives. The
Soviet economy and society stagnated in the following
decades until General Secretary Mikhail GORBACHEV (1985-91)
introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring)
in an attempt to modernize Communism, but his initiatives
inadvertently released forces that by December 1991 splintered
the USSR into Russia and 14 other independent republics.
Since then, Russia has shifted its post-Soviet democratic
ambitions in favor of a centralized semi-authoritarian
state whose legitimacy is buttressed, in part, by carefully
managed national elections, former President PUTIN's genuine
popularity, and the prudent management of Russia's windfall
energy wealth. Russia has severely disabled a Chechen
rebel movement, although violence still occurs throughout
the North Caucasus.
Russia ended 2008 with GDP growth of 6.0%, following 10
straight years of growth averaging 7% annually since the
financial crisis of 1998. Over the last six years, fixed
capital investment growth and personal income growth have
averaged above 10%, but both grew at slower rates in 2008.
Growth in 2008 was driven largely by non-tradable services
and domestic manufacturing, rather than exports. During
the past decade, poverty and unemployment declined steadily
and the middle class continued to expand. Russia also
improved its international financial position, running
balance of payments surpluses since 2000. Foreign exchange
reserves grew from $12 billion in 1999 to almost $600
billion by end July 2008, which include $200 billion in
two sovereign wealth funds: a reserve fund to support
budgetary expenditures in case of a fall in the price
of oil and a national welfare fund to help fund pensions
and infrastructure development. Total foreign debt is
approximately one-third of GDP. The state component of
foreign debt has declined, but commercial short-term debt
to foreigners has risen strongly. These positive trends
began to reverse in the second half of 2008. Investor
concerns over the Russia-Georgia conflict, corporate governance
issues, and the global credit crunch in September caused
the Russian stock market to fall by roughly 70%, primarily
due to margin calls that were difficult for many Russian
companies to meet. The global crisis also affected Russia's
banking system, which faced liquidity problems. Moscow
responded quickly in early October 2008, initiating a
rescue plan of over $200 billion that was designed to
increase liquidity in the financial sector, to help firms
refinance foreign debt, and to support the stock market.
The government also unveiled a $20 billion tax cut plan
and other safety nets for society and industry. Meanwhile,
a 70% drop in the price of oil since mid-July further
exacerbated imbalances in external accounts and the federal
budget. In mid-November, mini-devaluations of the currency
by the Central Bank caused increased capital flight and
froze domestic credit markets, resulting in growing unemployment,
wage arrears, and a severe drop in production. Foreign
exchange reserves dropped to around $435 billion by end
2008, as the Central Bank defended an overvalued ruble.
In the first year of his term, President MEDVEDEV outlined
a number of economic priorities for Russia including improving
infrastructure, innovation, investment, and institutions;
reducing the state's role in the economy; reforming the
tax system and banking sector; developing one of the biggest
financial centers in the world, combating corruption,
and improving the judiciary. The Russian government needs
to diversify the economy further, as energy and other
raw materials still dominate Russian export earnings and
federal budget receipts. Russia's infrastructure requires
large investments and must be replaced or modernized if
the country is to achieve broad-based economic growth.
Corruption, lack of trust in institutions, and more recently,
exchange rate uncertainty and the global economic crisis
continue to dampen domestic and foreign investor sentiment.
Russia has made some progress in building the rule of
law, the bedrock of a modern market economy, but much
work remains on judicial reform. Moscow continues to seek
accession to the WTO and has made some progress, but its
timeline for entry into the organization continues to
slip, and the negotiating atmosphere has soured in the
wake of the Georgia and global economic crises.
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